POTENTIAL IMPACT OF BIOTECHNOLOGY IN EASTERN EUROPE

In 2005, with the introduction of 270 hectares of Bt maize, the first transgenic crops appeared in the Czech Republic. The present study is the first attempt to estimate the size and distribution of the ex ante welfare effects of transgenic grain maize, sugar beet, and oilseed rape in the Czech Republic, developing a partial equilibrium model following a counterfactual approach for the agricultural season 2005. We model uncertainty through subjective distributions and through stochastic sensitivity analysis we analyze the robustness and sensitivity of the model to the underlying parameter estimates and assumptions.

During the period 2003-2005, grain maize, sugar beet and oilseed rape were planted in the Czech Republic on an average area of about 91,000 ha, 71,000 ha and 260,000 ha respectively. The total potential value for the Czech Republic of transgenic varieties fo r these crops, i.e. Bt maize resistant to European corn borer and herbicide tolerant maize, sugar beet and oilseed rape, amounts to an estimated €26 million, of which €17 million, or two thirds (66%), accrues to maize growers and €8.9 million, or one third (34%), to the gene developer and seed industry. The net present value of expected future Western corn rootworm (WCR) crop losses during the period 2007-2020 is estimated at €1.2 million, assuming an average yield loss of 15% under hypothetical absence of pest control measures. If we assume a 5% higher damage abatement efficacy, the value for the Czech Republic of WCR-resistant Bt maize relative to soil insecticides is estimated at about €60,000.

The whole article: http://www.biw.kuleuven.be/aee/clo/wp/daems2007a.pdf